Bitcoin lost more than half its value after peaking at $126,251 in 2025. Now one of Wall Street’s best-known macro strategists said the math points to $300,000 by 2029.
That call comes from Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, in his latest technical report. His argument is that Bitcoin has finished its local bearish trend and is set up for long-term growth. He doesn’t lean on sentiment or headlines to get there. He leans on a model.
The $60,000 floor that held
Everything in Timmer’s forecast depends on one number. He calls the $60,000 mark a critical “line in the sand.”
The local lows landed between $57,742 and $60,033 and formed a classic double bottom on the weekly chart. That’s the major reversal pattern institutional investors are watching. In Timmer’s reading, the market defending that level is a sign that selling pressure is fading.
And holding that support, he said, fully confirms the strength of the Power Law model and opens the way to new all-time highs.
There’s a second signal in his favor. The weekly stochastic indicators, Fast %D and Slow %D, have already climbed out of oversold territory. Timmer reads that as confirmation that large-scale buying has resumed, backed by long-term mathematical trends.
What the Power Law model actually measures
The model behind the $300,000 target values Bitcoin through logarithmic linear progression and a 52-week Z-score of its ratio to gold. Its central claim is that today’s price swings aren’t random noise. They’re regular cycles.
That framing does a lot of work. Earlier drawdowns of 56% and 63% fit entirely within the trajectory the model describes. So by its own logic, the latest drop of more than 50% from the 2025 peak isn’t a break in the trend. It’s part of it.
If you’ve watched Bitcoin for a few cycles, that pattern will feel familiar. It’s also the kind of model that looks cleanest in hindsight, which is worth keeping in mind before treating 2029 as a date on the calendar.
The short-term test sits at $82,500
Before anyone gets to $300,000, there’s a nearer hurdle. Resistance sits in the $82,000 to $86,000 range, and Bitcoin is trading close to the double bottom’s neckline at $82,266.
Analysts estimate that a decisive move above $82,500 would trigger a technical push toward the psychological $100,000 mark. For Wall Street, that breakout would signal the end of the capital accumulation phase.
That’s the part you can check soon. The 2029 target takes years to prove or disprove. The $82,500 line doesn’t.
Fidelity’s own fine print
Fidelity attaches its usual warnings. Bitcoin remains highly volatile, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns. The asset’s aggressive nature calls for strict diversification.
Timmer’s position is that Bitcoin’s trend follows strict mathematical principles, not the panic of retail investors. If you’re weighing that, watch the $60,000 floor first and the $82,500 breakout second. A model that says the floor matters is only as good as the floor.
