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Vitalik Buterin's 2030 vision takes Ethereum beyond a blockchain Image Source: Sanity

Vitalik Buterin’s 2030 vision takes Ethereum beyond a blockchain

George Tsagkarakis 5 min read
Contents 7 sections
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Vitalik Buterin wants Ethereum to stop doing the same math thousands of times over. In a post published Sunday, the Ethereum co-founder said the network he pictures for 2030 may still be called a blockchain, but it would work in a fundamentally different way from the one you use today.

He titled the post “The cryptographic world computer.” It lays out a system that pairs a blockchain with cryptographic proofs and with networks of computers doing work outside the chain. Buterin said the plan through 2030 would change two things at once: how much Ethereum can handle and what you can check for yourself without trusting anyone.

That’s a big promise. It’s also a promise with a long list of unsolved engineering problems attached, and Buterin’s own post admits several of them.

The redundancy problem Ethereum can’t scale past

Start with how things work now. A computer that fully verifies Ethereum reruns the calculations behind every transaction. It confirms that someone sending money had enough to spend, and that an application did only what its rules allowed.

Having many computers repeat that work is what keeps the network honest. But it comes with a ceiling. Adding more machines doesn’t automatically let Ethereum process more transactions, because each one is busy rechecking much of the same activity.

This is the tension every Ethereum user has run into, whether they knew it or not. You can send money, trade tokens and borrow through apps that follow shared rules. Getting those apps to serve more people without making the network too expensive to use, or too demanding to verify, is the hard part.

Proofs instead of repetition

Buterin’s argument is that newer cryptographic tools break that constraint. Under his model, one computer processes transactions and produces a short mathematical proof that it followed the rules. Other computers check the proof, which is much faster than redoing the original work.

Separate spot checks would confirm that transaction records stay available to anyone who wants to inspect them. Put together, different machines could take on different jobs while still verifying each other’s output.

The payoff, in theory, is that Ethereum gets more capacity and more independent checks at the same time. Today those two goals pull against each other.

A 10-year-old idea that was missing one piece

None of this is a new ambition. Buterin wrote that Ethereum’s developers wanted to split up work this way a decade ago but couldn’t make sure every participant had done its share correctly.

“Back then, this was not viable for one primary reason: the missing ingredient was verification,” Buterin said.

Earlier attempts handed specific tasks to smaller groups of computers. Coordinating those groups added delays, and if one group failed, the wider network could struggle to recover. Proofs are his answer to that failure mode: the machine doing a job shows its work in compressed form, and nobody else has to repeat the full calculation.

Where order still matters

Some problems don’t parallelize neatly. Ethereum still has to decide things like which of two payments spending the same funds came first. Buterin suggested that more of the work behind those payments could be done ahead of time, with proofs combined to shrink the amount of information that lands on the blockchain.

That’s a suggestion, not a finished design. And it’s one of several places where the vision outruns the current tooling.

Privacy that covers checking your balance

The privacy section is the part I’d watch most closely, because it targets a leak most people never think about. Checking a wallet balance usually means asking an outside server about an address. Whoever runs that server can learn which accounts you follow, even when the payments themselves are private.

Buterin envisions hiding those lookups, along with payment details and the rules an account uses to approve spending. A business could then keep its payments confidential without exposing its accounts every time an employee checks a balance.

Ethereum isn’t alone here. Zcash already lets users send payments with encrypted addresses and amounts. About 4.9 million ZEC sat in its shielded pools on Friday, according to ZecStats data, and the token traded around $1,660 earlier Sunday after gaining about 15% over the week.

Bitcoin researchers are circling the same idea. The authors of the Shielded Bitcoin paper, published Thursday, proposed borrowing Zcash’s payment design for BTC. Their specification leaves the mechanism for depositing and withdrawing actual bitcoin to separate research, which is a sizable gap.

The hard parts nobody has solved yet

Ethereum’s plan still needs substantial engineering work. Generating proofs has to get efficient enough for widespread use. Computers handling separate jobs also have to coordinate updates to the same balances and application records without stepping on each other.

Buterin’s own 2030 comparison still lists cost and privacy limitations for complex applications. So even his best case isn’t a clean sweep. It envisions payments becoming final, meaning the network treats them as irreversible, in roughly eight to 32 seconds.

Hegotá and the end of “normal” forks

The timeline has a clear marker. Buterin expects Hegotá, the upgrade planned for next year, to be Ethereum’s last “normal” fork, built with technology someone working on the network in 2015 would recognize.

After that, upgrades would lean more and more on mathematical proofs, on tools that check software for errors and on security designed to hold up against future quantum computers.

“Starting after Hegota, this transformation becomes Ethereum’s primary story,” Buterin wrote. “The final outcome of this: much more cheap, scalable and private high-security computation than anything that could be done with the previous era’s technology alone.

“The cryptographic world computer.”

If you build on Ethereum, the date to circle is Hegotá’s release next year. Everything Buterin described after it depends on proof generation getting cheap enough to run everywhere, and his post doesn’t claim that’s happened yet.

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George Tsagkarakis

George Tsagkarakis, known as Staycalm4now is a professional author in the crypto gaming industry since early 2018. He has experienced all the growth of Blockchain Gaming and helped multiple projects achieve their goals and established a player base. He is the co-founder of egamers.io and now the Founder and owner of CryptoGames.gg He is also the COO of MyStage, an…

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