XRP just closed its strongest third quarter since 2022, up 48.1%. And the calendar says October is about to make holders wait.
That’s the paradox facing Ripple’s “North Star” as the crypto market heads into the fourth quarter. Traders are betting on “Uptober,” the seasonal rally that’s supposed to lift every major coin at once. But XRP’s historical data and its current chart point the other way: a strong Q3 close may not spare the bulls a long pause this month.
October has a bad track record
Historically, October has been XRP’s worst month of the year. The average return is -5.14% and the median is -2.97%.
That isn’t a one-off. XRP has consistently finished October lower in past cycles, including in 2024 and 2025. If you’re expecting an immediate breakout because the calendar flipped, the numbers don’t back you up.
The Q4 average hides a weak start
At first glance, the fourth quarter looks great. XRP’s average Q4 return is +133.3%.
The median tells a different story, though. It sits in negative territory at -8.00%, because most liquidity historically arrives late. November leads with a median return of +80.2% and December holds a strong +63.1%. The money has tended to show up in late autumn, not at the start of the quarter.
The September rally left a mess behind it
Much of the momentum came from a large inflow of capital into U.S. spot ETFs. XRP settled at $1.54, fully erasing its first-half losses and flashing a bullish signal on the weekly timeframe.
But the speed of that move created local overbought conditions. A big part of September’s rally came from a short squeeze, where short positions were forcibly closed, rather than from steady buying. That kind of move can leave bulls stuck in consolidation.
The futures market is now overloaded with leverage. For the uptrend to continue in a healthy way, the price needs a technical pullback and a retest of support in the $1.30 to $1.40 range. October is an ideal window for that reset.
What to expect from here
XRP is on the threshold of a strong bull cycle, but technical factors rule out an immediate acceleration at the start of the quarter. The likely outcome for October is an extended sideways trend or a moderate correction.
If you’re trading this, the $1.30 to $1.40 zone is the level to watch this month. Based on history, November is when the real test starts.
This article is for informational purposes only and isn’t financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile, so do your own research before making any investment decisions.
