Bitcoin hasn’t moved more than 6% in either direction over the past month. As of this writing it’s trading around $81,735, down 1.2% on the day, and the rest of the market looks just as quiet.
None of the top five cryptocurrencies has moved more than 2% over the past week. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 47, a neutral reading. For an asset class known for wild swings, it’s a dull stretch.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said Bitcoin is in “wait and see mode.” Some analysts think that could be good news for holders.
Why some analysts like a boring chart
Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks, said a quiet market is “usually a good sign, and one reason is that it doesn’t last.”
“In the past, similar low-volatility stretches have led to 30% price swings in either direction within a few months,” Koch-Gallup said.
Look at the words “either direction.” A calm period means a large move is likely. It doesn’t say which way.
Dragosch called the lull a “constructive sign.” In his view, “long stretches of uneventful trading punctuated by a handful of outsized moves” are a typical early marker of a bull market.
He also said the drawdowns in Bitcoin’s current recovery have done less damage than in previous cycles, and that’s happening while oil, semiconductor stocks and government bonds are seeing “elevated” volatility.
“That tells us investors are increasingly willing to absorb weakness and maintain exposure,” Dragosch said, calling it “resilience rather than euphoria.”
The case for reading nothing into it
Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at crypto trading firm GSR, doesn’t think the quiet means much either way. He said the market is standing still because a “risk-off” mood has spread across global markets.
“This has been mostly due to factors outside of crypto, with a complex macro situation and fears around AI stocks taking center stage,” Guzman said. “We’re unlikely to see a significant market breakout while broader risk-off sentiment prevails, so markets continue to be choppy.”
Dragosch described markets as stuck between tightening global financial conditions and an expectation that slowing growth will eventually push central banks to change course.
Everyone is watching the Fed
The Federal Reserve is the main thing holding Bitcoin in place. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and CPI then rose 0.6% for September.
The next rate decision lands on October 28, “and until then nobody wants to make a big bet,” Koch-Gallup said.
Dragosch said Bitcoin is sitting near “the market’s economic midpoint,” the level where roughly half of all invested capital is in profit and half is at a loss. At that price, “neither buyers nor sellers currently have much incentive to move the market away from this level,” he said.
Buyers haven’t disappeared. Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 last week but “quickly found buyers,” Guzman said. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF took in $665.20 million on Monday, according to CoinGlass data.
“The problem is that buying hasn’t been consistent enough to drive a sustained rally,” Guzman said.
Three dates in two weeks
Koch-Gallup pointed to three events in the next two weeks that could set the market’s next major move. The Fed decides on October 28. An options expiry covering $11.69 billion worth of Bitcoin follows on October 30. Then the U.S. midterms are on November 3.
“If the Fed keeps rates the same and ETF inflows keep coming, I’d expect the break to be upward,” Koch-Gallup said. “If the Fed hikes again, the $75,000 to $77,000 floor comes back into play.”
Guzman named a fourth possible trigger: a resolution to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Dragosch said derivatives markets are pricing in far less volatility than on-chain data suggests. As a result, options are “unusually cheap right now, both for hedging and for positioning for a larger move in either direction.”
The small caps aren’t waiting
Bitcoin and the other large tokens have gone sideways, but some smaller coins have moved hard. BAT, the token behind the Brave browser, is up almost 87% over the past month to a $263 million market cap. Collector Crypt, a card collection marketplace, jumped 95% to $318 million over the same period.
Koch-Gallup is treating the slow stretch as a time to shop. “For me, a boring market is the time to buy high-quality protocols before a bull market makes them overvalued,” he said. “I’m focused on revenue-generating businesses with strong tokenholder claims.”
“A boring market means you have to work harder to find the opportunities, not that they aren’t there,” Koch-Gallup said.
