Kieran Warwick, co-founder of the creature-collecting web3 series Illuvium, says play-to-earn is coming back, and he thinks AI is the reason. In a long post on X, Warwick wrote: “I cannot believe I’m saying this, but Play-to-Earn is going to make a comeback.” His case is that AI tools now let developers build a simple game in a week. That makes short-lived, high-emission P2E games worth launching again.
This is a reversal for him. During the last cycle, Warwick called himself one of P2E’s biggest opponents. He described the model as unsustainable and a Ponzi, and he admits that got him into trouble. He says his view of the economics hasn’t changed. The cost of building these games has, and he believes that shift opens the door to something “a lot of people are going to hate.”
What Warwick expects players to see
He describes the formula: very high emissions, a farm wrapped in a game, and easy access on mobile or in a browser. The yield will dry up and players will leave, but by then the developer may be halfway through the next game.
“Suddenly, a game with a seven-day lifespan can be worth building,” he wrote. “That’s the part I think changes everything.”
Warwick expects headlines about players in the Philippines earning more from games than from their day jobs to return. He also says “playing” will be doing a lot of heavy lifting, since many users will commit money and time, watch the yield and pick their moment to leave. “There will be almost zero loyalty to most of these games,” he wrote. For a developer who built a game in a week, he says, that may be fine.
He doesn’t call it a safe bet. “Again, I’m not saying everyone participating is going to make money. Plenty of people will lose,” he wrote. He compares the trend to sports betting and prediction markets: “If you don’t like gambling, you’re probably going to hate what I’m describing.” Crypto is permissionless, he argues, so if there’s enough money on the table, someone will build these games whether others approve or not.
From DeFi Summer to a seven-day game
Warwick traces the idea back to DeFi Summer, when projects used token incentives to attract liquidity. He still thinks that was a useful idea, but he notes that what a product is meant to do and where it actually finds its market can be very different. Builders learned to push emissions to extremes, knowing high yields might last days, hours or even minutes. Users piled in anyway, sharing APY screenshots and racing to find the newest farm. The competition was over who got in first and who timed the exit best.
He sums it up as “Gambling with a drop of skill.” Crypto already had a game, in his view. The next step is to wrap an actual game around it.
Five years ago, building even a basic playable P2E game took serious time and money. Spending a year on a game whose earning frenzy might last a week made little sense, even if that week brought in hundreds of thousands of players. So teams tried to stretch their economies, plan emissions and build lasting token demand. Warwick points to Axie Infinity (official site): over time, SLP issuance outpaced the amount being burned, and the team cut rewards to rebalance the economy.
AI changes that math, he says. A developer who builds a simple game in a week hasn’t spent years on the IP and has little attachment to it. A short lifespan is acceptable if the launch brings in enough attention, users and money.
As evidence of how fast simple games can grow, he points to Roblox. The first version of Grow a Garden was built by a 16-year-old in a few days. Splitting Point Studios later acquired it, and in late June 2025 it hit 21.6 million concurrent players, passing Fortnite’s previous record of 15.2 million. Warwick says the game reportedly made 12 million USD in a single month, and that thousands of Roblox creators already use AI tools to plan, build and test their games.
Why he thinks it helps Illuvium
Warwick admits the view may sit badly with long-term Illuvium (official site) supporters, given the studio has spent years building through the downturn. “But I actually think this will be GOOD for Illuvium ILV $3.46 ▼ -2.4%,” he wrote.
Only two months ago, he notes, many people were calling crypto gaming dead. If a few new P2E games take off and players start earning, he expects gaming to return to the timeline quickly, and established gaming tokens could benefit as capital rotates back into the sector. He also hopes some players who arrive through fast, yield-driven games will find deeper titles like Illuvium. “We still have to turn that attention into people who stay,” he added.
Where Illuvium stands now
Illuvium is a set of connected web3 games built around Illuvials, collectible creatures that players capture, level up and take into battle. Illuvium: Arena is a competitive auto battler. The Overworld is an open-world MMO where players explore and collect Illuvials.
The studio has had a hard run. In August 2026, Warwick said the team had agreed to cut wages again to extend its runway past 12 months. The protocol was earning under 10,000 USD per month at the time, and the remaining team was focused almost entirely on the Overworld MMO.
Work on the games continues:
- Illuvium: Arena v1.18.8 launched on October 7 with the Abyssal Chasm Event Pass, which ends on October 27.
- The Illuvium Challengers Series #2 is running, with finals on October 25.
- Nominations for five Illuvium Main Council seats are open until October 27, with voting from October 27 to 31. Warwick was elected to the council in the previous Epoch 11 election.
Warwick ended his post with a prediction for the months ahead: “I think this gets stupidly hot again. And much faster than people expect.”
